Molybdenum News Center

China's Molybdenum Demand Would Grow Slowly on Steel Output Peaks

China's molybdenum demand will continue to grow over 2020-2030 but at a slower pace than in recent years as crude steel output was expected to peak, a joint study by the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences and Institute of Mineral Resources said.

The forecast was based on historical molybdenum data from China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, which said 2018 molybdenum demand was 86,000 mt.

CAGS and IMR forecast total 2020 molybdenum demand at 82,800 mt, comprising ferromolybdenum with 60% molybdenum content and other products with higher molybdenum content.

Chinese steelmakers typically use ferromolybdenum for stainless steel production. Ferromolybdenum demand in 2020 was forecast at 104,800 mt, with 2025 molybdenum demand at 88,900 mt and ferromolybdenum 112,500 mt, while 2030 molybdenum demand was seen at 93,600 mt and ferromolybdenum at 118,500 mt.

The base scenario was that China's molybdenum consumption pattern stays unchanged, but crude steel output falls from 2018's 928 million mt. Demand growth was seen at 8.6% from 2020-2025, slowing to 4% from 2025-2030, according to the forecast.

China, the world's largest consumer and producer of molybdenum, will set the global market direction for the next decade or so, market participants said.

For the past few years, Chinese molybdenum demand has posted double-digit growth in percentage terms, and some overseas market participants said they hoped China would continue to lead the market's expansion.

“I am more optimistic [than CAGS]. Global demand is seen to grow 4%-5% annually for the next decade and that of China 3%, driven by stainless steel demand for building infrastructure," a Japanese trader said.

In China, stainless steel and low alloy high tensile steel sectors are the biggest primary molybdenum demand drivers, accounting for 66% of consumption, with the high speed tool, cast iron, molybdenum chemical, molybdenum product, and other sectors accounting for 34%, data from state-run metals consultancy Beijing Antaike showed.

• < Prev
• Next >